Uncovering the 'Truth'

[Graham Stewart]

I was in London yesterday at a conference about the future or organisational design for international companies. The thought leaders in this area are looking at internet software tools that allow people to share information openly and through their informal networks, thus allowing for people to find what they are looking for much more quickly.

They also talked about how eventually search engines will find you, rather that you having to search for things.

I also met a guy who is the head of HR for an international Oil and Gas exploration company and in my question about Peak Oil, he shook his head and said it's all going to be fine. We'll revert to new energy sources when the time is right. It's all been thought through a long long time ago.

So, I find it difficult to understand who is telling the truth.

Who do I listen to?

Do I listen to the people who actually work in the industry but who may have a bias?

Or do I listen to people of good intent who make connections as to where it's all heading but who are external to the actual oil system.

Who knows?

[Rowena]

Good post Graham and one we all wonder about I imagine. I don't think there is one 'truth' and it will probably turn out to be somewhere in the middle. LIke you, the couple of people I have spoken to within the industry did not turn out to be so concerned about peak oil as people with the transition movement. I did take heart from listening to Richard Heinburg (author of many peak oil books) at the first Transition Conference 2 years ago - he said that if we all, year on year, had a 3% reduction in our oil use, there would be no particular 'crunch' time, as oil demand would dovetail into remaining supply and the apocalypic scenarios wouldn't arise.

Where those apocalyptic scenarios do arise is in climate change which is even less predictable but potentially so much more catastrophic. Thankfully scientists and goverments around the world are much more aware and on the case - they may not agree on the answers or the route, but attitudes are very different even from say 2-3 years ago.

Oil matters as burning it is one of the main causes of CO2 and CO2 increases are likely to be at least in part driving climate change.

I think that the HR person is right in many ways - as the price of oil rises people adjust their behaviour, switch to other things or ways of spending time, and those alternatives become the mainstay rather than the periphery. So peak oil is I think something to be aware of, to think around, and to plan for (and I have seen plenty of individual householders doing just this particularly when the oil price went to its peak last year). But it is climate change that really drives my involvement in transition, along with the fact that most resources (including oil) are finite, and they are currently most unevenly shared within and between nations.