A community in transition to a low carbon, sustainable, resilient life.
How serious is Peak Oil; Climate Change and the Credit Crunch?
Notes from the World cafe on 14th May. These points came up in discussion and are not necessarily the opinion of any one participant or of the group in general.
How serious is Peak Oil; Climate Change and the Credit Crunch?
What are the main obstacles and challenges and how to overcome them?
Peak Oil, Climate Change and the Credit Crunch are all very serious. Climate change was thought to be the most serious and potentially catastrophic for the whole planet. The Peak Oil crisis has the potential to impact severely on human life and the credit crunch is limited to a certain extent to the human financial eco-system. Nearly all participants thought that there may be potential for change as a result of the Credit Crunch and that it should be seen as an opportunity for the world to function differently. However this was not a given and work is needed to take advantage of the opportunity to affect the type of change needed to bring down oil consumption and decrease carbon emissions.
There were some thoughts about the links between Peak Oil and the Credit Crunch, including price rises (energy and food); war leading to excessive public expenditure and financial weakness and affecting the strength of the economy to deal with shocks. There was some disagreement on the causal links, but there was agreement that action to combat and deal with Climate Change and Peak Oil should be dealt with together and not as two separate and unrelated problems.
The Credit Crunch does affect people’s lives directly. Forest Row has suffered less than many other communities that have been economically dependent on industries and companies that are closing down. However people appear to be changing the way they live. Since the allotment waiting list was cleared another 25 people are now waiting for allotments. People appear to be waking up to the food issues emerging.
Obstacles
People do not see Climate change and Peak Oil as connected to their everyday lives. In many ways it does not affect them until there is an oil price rise. Because of this people may not decide to change the way they live now.
There was some opinion that a Peak Oil crisis would happen gradually and that we would inevitably adapt over time to new ways of producing energy. However others thought that oil price rises would be volatile and erratic and would throw people from complacency into panic and back again, without giving the space to plan well.
Unless people think radically about the solutions to the Credit Crunch we will end up on the same old treadmill. Should we really continue to base human activity on the goal of economic growth?
How can low income countries achieve human development without economic growth?
There is a high level of public complacency and a distrust of political systems and democratic processes. Social movements possibly do not have enough energy to really promote change. (Argentina: “We got into this mess because we did not participate”)
A lot of money (private sector) behind advertising and communications that promote a consumerist lifestyle and very little money behind communications to change the way we live.
People are not asking the right questions about the bankers’ bonuses and politicians expense claims. It is not just individual wrong doing that is the issue here, but the situation of the whole of society. How did we develop into a society where it is OK to steal from each other?
We are all very comfortable and need to wake up to the responsibility that we all have to change the way things are done.
Suggestions for overcoming the obstacles and challenges.
Do an economic/lifestyle analysis of Forest Row to show the true activity, costs and benefits in the community. This would include costs to the environment, the counting of unpaid labour/volunteer work, benefits of assets like social capital and community. (Note: could the New Economics Foundation be asked for advice about this?)
Provide ground for the development of skills, planning and ideas so that initiatives can blossom when a crisis develops. (For example alternative currencies that grew up in Argentina during the financial crisis were preceded by bartering and general community exchange).
Participate more fully in the democratic system: use MPs more effectively by writing letters (and even better sometimes asking for a Parliamentary Question – Oral if possible). Link with working groups in the House of Commons. (Note: There are All Party Parliamentary Groups on related issues such as “Balanced and sustainable Communities”; “Climate Change”; “Climate Survival”; “Community and Voluntary Sector”; “Community Media”; “Communications” to name but a few. There isn’t one of Transition yet – could we approach an MP to start one up?)
Get serious about communications. Because of lack of money communications by internet will be key. But traditional media are also important. There was some thought that media needs to be influenced to change the way they are reporting these crises. And that they should be given hopeful and good news stories to promote hope and behaviour change. (Example: In one country female condoms were marketed to sex workers with special bead belts that jangled during sex. The idea was to make the condom sexy and not just scare people about HIV infection). (Example from Tony Benn: at the end of the news instead of giving the FTSE index we should be giving a report on the carbon output).
There is also the potential to start new media outlets – for example Democracy Now in the USA is a radio station with many listeners.
Food production takes longest to get going. We need to grow local and seasonal now. We also need to change our consumption patterns.
Think about different local financial systems like credit unions, currencies etc. (Note: In one country they found that local currencies did not catch on unless there was a need – and that would mean at least 11% unemployment rate.)
Make sure that people in positions of authority are sensitive to the transition aims.
How serious is Peak Oil; Climate Change and the Credit Crunch?
What are the main obstacles and challenges and how to overcome them?
Peak Oil, Climate Change and the Credit Crunch are all very serious. Climate change was thought to be the most serious and potentially catastrophic for the whole planet. The Peak Oil crisis has the potential to impact severely on human life and the credit crunch is limited to a certain extent to the human financial eco-system. Nearly all participants thought that there may be potential for change as a result of the Credit Crunch and that it should be seen as an opportunity for the world to function differently. However this was not a given and work is needed to take advantage of the opportunity to affect the type of change needed to bring down oil consumption and decrease carbon emissions.
There were some thoughts about the links between Peak Oil and the Credit Crunch, including price rises (energy and food); war leading to excessive public expenditure and financial weakness and affecting the strength of the economy to deal with shocks. There was some disagreement on the causal links, but there was agreement that action to combat and deal with Climate Change and Peak Oil should be dealt with together and not as two separate and unrelated problems.
The Credit Crunch does affect people’s lives directly. Forest Row has suffered less than many other communities that have been economically dependent on industries and companies that are closing down. However people appear to be changing the way they live. Since the allotment waiting list was cleared another 25 people are now waiting for allotments. People appear to be waking up to the food issues emerging.
Obstacles
People do not see Climate change and Peak Oil as connected to their everyday lives. In many ways it does not affect them until there is an oil price rise. Because of this people may not decide to change the way they live now.
There was some opinion that a Peak Oil crisis would happen gradually and that we would inevitably adapt over time to new ways of producing energy. However others thought that oil price rises would be volatile and erratic and would throw people from complacency into panic and back again, without giving the space to plan well.
Unless people think radically about the solutions to the Credit Crunch we will end up on the same old treadmill. Should we really continue to base human activity on the goal of economic growth?
How can low income countries achieve human development without economic growth?
There is a high level of public complacency and a distrust of political systems and democratic processes. Social movements possibly do not have enough energy to really promote change. (Argentina: “We got into this mess because we did not participate”)
A lot of money (private sector) behind advertising and communications that promote a consumerist lifestyle and very little money behind communications to change the way we live.
People are not asking the right questions about the bankers’ bonuses and politicians expense claims. It is not just individual wrong doing that is the issue here, but the situation of the whole of society. How did we develop into a society where it is OK to steal from each other?
We are all very comfortable and need to wake up to the responsibility that we all have to change the way things are done.
Suggestions for overcoming the obstacles and challenges.
Do an economic/lifestyle analysis of Forest Row to show the true activity, costs and benefits in the community. This would include costs to the environment, the counting of unpaid labour/volunteer work, benefits of assets like social capital and community. (Note: could the New Economics Foundation be asked for advice about this?)
Provide ground for the development of skills, planning and ideas so that initiatives can blossom when a crisis develops. (For example alternative currencies that grew up in Argentina during the financial crisis were preceded by bartering and general community exchange).
Participate more fully in the democratic system: use MPs more effectively by writing letters (and even better sometimes asking for a Parliamentary Question – Oral if possible). Link with working groups in the House of Commons. (Note: There are All Party Parliamentary Groups on related issues such as “Balanced and sustainable Communities”; “Climate Change”; “Climate Survival”; “Community and Voluntary Sector”; “Community Media”; “Communications” to name but a few. There isn’t one of Transition yet – could we approach an MP to start one up?)
Get serious about communications. Because of lack of money communications by internet will be key. But traditional media are also important. There was some thought that media needs to be influenced to change the way they are reporting these crises. And that they should be given hopeful and good news stories to promote hope and behaviour change. (Example: In one country female condoms were marketed to sex workers with special bead belts that jangled during sex. The idea was to make the condom sexy and not just scare people about HIV infection). (Example from Tony Benn: at the end of the news instead of giving the FTSE index we should be giving a report on the carbon output).
There is also the potential to start new media outlets – for example Democracy Now in the USA is a radio station with many listeners.
Food production takes longest to get going. We need to grow local and seasonal now. We also need to change our consumption patterns.
Think about different local financial systems like credit unions, currencies etc. (Note: In one country they found that local currencies did not catch on unless there was a need – and that would mean at least 11% unemployment rate.)
Make sure that people in positions of authority are sensitive to the transition aims.
Replies to This Discussion
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Permalink Reply by Mike Grenville on -
Dwindling supplies and no plan B – are we heading for Mad Max scenario?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/oct/26/oil-prices-production
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Permalink Reply by Mike Grenville on
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Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure, says whistleblower
The world is much closer to running out of oil than official estimates admit, according to a whistleblower at the International Energy Agency who claims it has been deliberately underplaying a looming shortage for fear of triggering panic buying.
The senior official claims the US has played an influential role in encouraging the watchdog to underplay the rate of decline from existing oil fields while overplaying the chances of finding new reserves.
The allegations raise serious questions about the accuracy of the organisation's latest World Energy Outlook on oil demand and supply to be published tomorrow – which is used by the British and many other governments to help guide their wider energy and climate change policies.
In particular they question the prediction in the last World Economic Outlook, believed to be repeated again this year, that oil production can be raised from its current level of 83m barrels a day to 105m barrels. External critics have frequently argued that this cannot be substantiated by firm evidence and say the world has already passed its peak in oil production.
The British government, among others, always uses the IEA statistics rather than any of its own to argue that there is little threat to long-term oil supplies.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/09/peak-oil-internat...
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Permalink Reply by Mike Grenville on
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The IEA and World Oil Supply Projections
An article that looks at how the IEA position has been shifting
http://transitionwhatcom.ning.com/profiles/blogs/the-iea-and-world-...
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Permalink Reply by Mike Grenville on
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ODAC Newsletter - Nov 13
Published Nov 13 2009 by Oil Depletion Analysis Centre
http://www.odac-info.org/newsletter/2009/11/13
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